Surf Break: Folly Beach – Last Run: 2025-03-12
18:00:00
Details
Narrative & Links
SpaghettiSurf is inspired by hurricane spaghetti models, which visualize the uncertainty in storm tracks. By applying this concept to surf forecasting, SpaghettiSurf aims to provide quantitative bounds and probabilistic estimates for both short-term and long-range forecasts, offering surfers a clearer understanding of the potential range of wave conditions. We plan video discussions of swell events in the future to promote the use.
S-M Wave & Wind Tables: Folly Beach
| DateTime | Surf(ft) | Max Period (s) | Wave Dir | Chop Index | Wind(kt) | Wind Dir |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 12 06pm | 1.5 | 8.2 | ESE | 3 | 9 | SSW |
| Wed 12 07pm | 1.5 | 8.1 | ESE | 3 | 8 | SSW |
| Wed 12 08pm | 1.4 | 8.0 | ESE | 3 | 9 | SSW |
| Wed 12 09pm | 1.4 | 7.9 | ESE | 3 | 11 | S |
| Wed 12 10pm | 1.3 | 7.9 | ESE | 3 | 12 | S |
| Wed 12 11pm | 1.1 | 7.9 | ESE | 3 | 14 | SSW |
| Thu 13 12am | 0.9 | 7.8 | E | 3 | 14 | SSW |
| Thu 13 01am | 0.8 | 7.8 | E | 3 | 13 | SSW |
| Thu 13 02am | 0.7 | 7.8 | E | 3 | 11 | SSW |
| Thu 13 03am | 0.6 | 7.8 | E | 3 | 15 | SSW |
| Thu 13 04am | 0.7 | 7.8 | E | 3 | 13 | SW |
| Thu 13 05am | 0.7 | 7.8 | E | 3 | 12 | SW |
| Thu 13 06am | 0.8 | 7.8 | E | 3 | 14 | SSW |
| Thu 13 07am | 1.0 | 8.1 | ESE | 3 | 14 | SW |
| Thu 13 08am | 1.1 | 8.3 | ESE | 3 | 12 | SW |
| Thu 13 09am | 1.2 | 8.3 | ESE | 3 | 12 | SW |
| Thu 13 10am | 1.3 | 8.3 | ESE | 2 | 11 | SW |
| Thu 13 11am | 1.3 | 8.3 | ESE | 2 | 11 | SW |
| Thu 13 12pm | 1.2 | 8.2 | ESE | 2 | 11 | SW |
| Thu 13 01pm | 1.1 | 8.2 | ESE | 2 | 11 | SW |
| Thu 13 02pm | 0.9 | 8.1 | ESE | 2 | 8 | WSW |
| Thu 13 03pm | 0.7 | 8.0 | ESE | 2 | 7 | SW |
| Thu 13 04pm | 0.6 | 8.0 | ESE | 3 | 9 | SSW |
| Thu 13 05pm | 0.6 | 7.9 | ESE | 3 | 12 | SSW |
| Thu 13 06pm | 0.5 | 7.9 | ESE | 3 | 13 | SSW |
| Thu 13 07pm | 0.5 | 7.9 | ESE | 3 | 12 | SSW |
| Thu 13 08pm | 0.5 | 7.8 | ESE | 3 | 12 | S |
| Thu 13 09pm | 0.5 | 7.8 | ESE | 3 | 12 | S |
| Thu 13 10pm | 0.6 | 7.8 | ESE | 3 | 11 | S |
| Thu 13 11pm | 0.7 | 7.8 | ESE | 2 | 10 | S |
| Fri 14 12am | 0.8 | 7.8 | ESE | 2 | 10 | S |
| Fri 14 01am | 0.9 | 7.8 | ESE | 2 | 9 | S |
| Fri 14 02am | 0.9 | 7.8 | ESE | 2 | 10 | SSW |
| Fri 14 03am | 0.9 | 7.8 | ESE | 2 | 11 | SSW |
| Fri 14 04am | 0.9 | 7.8 | ESE | 2 | 12 | SW |
| Fri 14 05am | 0.8 | 7.8 | ESE | 2 | 12 | SW |
| Fri 14 06am | 0.8 | 7.8 | ESE | 2 | 13 | SW |
| Fri 14 07am | 0.8 | 7.8 | ESE | 2 | 11 | WSW |
| Fri 14 08am | 0.8 | 7.8 | ESE | 1 | 11 | WSW |
| Fri 14 09am | 0.8 | 7.8 | ESE | 1 | 6 | W |
| Fri 14 10am | 0.8 | 7.8 | ESE | 0 | 6 | W |
| Fri 14 11am | 0.8 | 7.8 | ESE | 0 | 5 | WSW |
| Fri 14 12pm | 0.8 | 7.9 | ESE | 0 | 5 | WNW |
| Fri 14 01pm | 0.8 | 7.9 | ESE | 0 | 5 | NW |
| Fri 14 02pm | 0.8 | 8.0 | ESE | 0 | 4 | NE |
| Fri 14 03pm | 0.8 | 8.9 | ESE | 1 | 4 | SE |
| Fri 14 04pm | 0.9 | 9.0 | ESE | 1 | 7 | S |
| Fri 14 05pm | 0.9 | 9.0 | ESE | 1 | 6 | SE |
| Fri 14 06pm | 0.9 | 9.0 | ESE | 1 | 7 | ESE |
| Fri 14 07pm | 0.9 | 9.0 | ESE | 1 | 7 | SSE |
| Fri 14 08pm | 0.9 | 9.0 | ESE | 2 | 7 | SSE |
| Fri 14 09pm | 0.9 | 9.0 | ESE | 2 | 8 | SSE |
| Fri 14 10pm | 0.8 | 9.0 | ESE | 2 | 9 | SSE |
| Fri 14 11pm | 0.7 | 9.0 | ESE | 3 | 11 | SSE |
| Sat 15 12am | 0.6 | 8.9 | ESE | 3 | 10 | SSE |
| Sat 15 01am | 0.6 | 8.9 | ESE | 3 | 10 | SSE |
| Sat 15 02am | 0.6 | 8.9 | ESE | 3 | 11 | S |
| Sat 15 03am | 0.8 | 8.9 | ESE | 3 | 10 | S |
| Sat 15 04am | 0.9 | 4.2 | SSE | 3 | 10 | S |
| Sat 15 05am | 1.1 | 4.5 | SSE | 3 | 8 | S |
| Sat 15 06am | 1.3 | 4.7 | SSE | 3 | 6 | S |
| Sat 15 07am | 1.4 | 4.9 | SSE | 3 | 6 | S |
| Sat 15 08am | 1.5 | 5.1 | SSE | 3 | 8 | S |
| Sat 15 09am | 1.6 | 5.2 | SSE | 4 | 10 | S |
| Sat 15 10am | 1.6 | 5.3 | SSE | 4 | 12 | S |
| Sat 15 11am | 1.7 | 5.3 | SSE | 4 | 12 | SSE |
| Sat 15 12pm | 1.8 | 5.4 | SSE | 5 | 12 | SSE |
| Sat 15 01pm | 1.9 | 5.5 | SSE | 5 | 14 | SSE |
| Sat 15 02pm | 2.0 | 5.5 | SSE | 5 | 14 | SSE |
| Sat 15 03pm | 2.1 | 5.6 | SSE | 6 | 15 | SSE |
| Sat 15 04pm | 2.4 | 5.6 | SSE | 6 | 16 | SSE |
| Sat 15 05pm | 2.6 | 5.7 | SSE | 7 | 16 | SSE |
| Sat 15 06pm | 3.0 | 6.0 | SSE | 8 | 18 | SSE |
| Sat 15 07pm | 3.4 | 6.3 | SSE | 8 | 19 | SSE |
| Sat 15 08pm | 3.8 | 6.7 | SSE | 9 | 21 | SSE |
| Sat 15 09pm | 4.2 | 6.9 | SSE | 10 | 22 | SSE |
| Sat 15 10pm | 4.5 | 7.2 | SSE | 10 | 23 | SSE |
| Sat 15 11pm | 4.8 | 7.3 | SSE | 10 | 24 | SSE |
| Sun 16 12am | 5.0 | 7.6 | SSE | 10 | 22 | S |
| Sun 16 01am | 5.2 | 7.8 | SSE | 10 | 25 | S |
| Sun 16 02am | 5.4 | 7.9 | SSE | 10 | 25 | S |
| Sun 16 03am | 5.6 | 8.1 | SSE | 10 | 23 | S |
| Sun 16 04am | 5.7 | 8.2 | SSE | 10 | 22 | S |
| Sun 16 05am | 5.7 | 8.3 | SSE | 10 | 24 | S |
| Sun 16 06am | 5.8 | 8.3 | SSE | 10 | 24 | S |
| Sun 16 07am | 5.9 | 8.3 | SSE | 10 | 25 | S |
| Sun 16 08am | 6.0 | 8.3 | SSE | 10 | 25 | S |
| Sun 16 09am | 6.1 | 8.4 | SSE | 10 | 26 | S |
| Sun 16 10am | 6.2 | 8.4 | SSE | 10 | 28 | S |
| Sun 16 11am | 6.2 | 8.4 | SSE | 10 | 28 | SSW |
| Sun 16 12pm | 6.2 | 8.4 | SSE | 10 | 26 | SSW |
| Sun 16 01pm | 6.0 | 8.4 | SSE | 10 | 26 | S |
| Sun 16 02pm | 5.9 | 8.4 | SSE | 10 | 25 | S |
| Sun 16 03pm | 5.6 | 8.4 | SSE | 10 | 23 | SSW |
| Sun 16 04pm | 5.3 | 8.4 | SSE | 9 | 23 | SW |
| Sun 16 05pm | 4.9 | 8.4 | SSE | 8 | 17 | WSW |
| Sun 16 06pm | 4.6 | 8.4 | SSE | 7 | 11 | SW |
| Sun 16 07pm | 4.3 | 8.4 | SSE | 6 | 10 | SW |
| Sun 16 08pm | 4.1 | 8.3 | SSE | 5 | 10 | SW |
| Sun 16 09pm | 3.9 | 8.3 | SSE | 3 | 9 | SW |
| Sun 16 10pm | 3.8 | 8.2 | SSE | 2 | 10 | WSW |
| Sun 16 11pm | 3.7 | 8.1 | SSE | 2 | 14 | W |
| Mon 17 12am | 3.6 | 8.0 | SSE | 1 | 15 | WNW |
| Mon 17 01am | 3.5 | 8.0 | SSE | 1 | 16 | WNW |
| Mon 17 02am | 3.4 | 7.9 | SSE | 1 | 16 | WNW |
| Mon 17 03am | 3.3 | 7.9 | SSE | 1 | 17 | WNW |
| Mon 17 04am | 3.2 | 7.9 | SSE | 1 | 17 | WNW |
| Mon 17 05am | 3.0 | 7.8 | SSE | 1 | 18 | WNW |
| Mon 17 06am | 2.9 | 7.8 | SSE | 1 | 17 | WNW |
| Mon 17 07am | 2.8 | 7.8 | SSE | 1 | 17 | NW |
| Mon 17 08am | 2.6 | 7.7 | SE | 1 | 17 | NW |
| Mon 17 09am | 2.5 | 7.7 | SE | 0 | 15 | NW |
| Mon 17 10am | 2.4 | 7.7 | SE | 0 | 16 | NW |
| Mon 17 11am | 2.2 | 7.7 | SE | 0 | 14 | NNW |
| Mon 17 12pm | 2.1 | 7.8 | SE | 0 | 13 | NNW |
| Mon 17 03pm | 1.9 | 8.2 | SE | 0 | 6 | NNW |
| Mon 17 06pm | 1.7 | 8.3 | SE | 0 | 5 | N |
| Mon 17 09pm | 1.6 | 8.4 | SE | 0 | 7 | WSW |
| Tue 18 12am | 1.5 | 8.5 | SE | 1 | 5 | SW |
| Tue 18 03am | 1.5 | 8.5 | SE | 1 | 2 | WSW |
| Tue 18 06am | 1.5 | 8.6 | SE | 1 | 3 | S |
| Tue 18 09am | 1.5 | 8.6 | SE | 2 | 7 | S |
| Tue 18 12pm | 1.5 | 8.6 | SE | 2 | 9 | SSW |
| Tue 18 03pm | 1.5 | 8.6 | SE | 2 | 8 | SSW |
| Tue 18 06pm | 1.6 | 8.6 | SE | 2 | 7 | SSW |
| Tue 18 09pm | 1.7 | 8.6 | SE | 3 | 9 | SSW |
| Wed 19 12am | 1.9 | 8.5 | SE | 3 | 10 | SSW |
| Wed 19 03am | 2.0 | 8.5 | SE | 3 | 10 | SSW |
| Wed 19 06am | 2.1 | 8.4 | SE | 4 | 10 | SW |
| Wed 19 09am | 2.2 | 8.3 | SE | 4 | 13 | SW |
| Wed 19 12pm | 2.4 | 8.3 | SE | 4 | 14 | SW |
| Wed 19 03pm | 2.7 | 8.2 | SE | 5 | 14 | SSW |
| Wed 19 06pm | 3.1 | 8.2 | SE | 5 | 12 | SSW |
| Wed 19 09pm | 3.6 | 16.1 | SE | 6 | 13 | SSW |
| Thu 20 12am | 3.8 | 15.5 | SE | 6 | 20 | SSW |
| Thu 20 03am | 3.8 | 15.0 | SE | 6 | 16 | SW |
| Thu 20 06am | 3.5 | 14.4 | SE | 6 | 20 | SSW |
| Thu 20 09am | 3.3 | 14.1 | SE | 5 | 21 | SW |
| Thu 20 12pm | 3.3 | 13.6 | SE | 4 | 19 | W |
| Thu 20 03pm | 3.6 | 13.3 | SE | 3 | 12 | WNW |
| Thu 20 06pm | 3.9 | 13.1 | SE | 3 | 10 | NNW |
| Thu 20 09pm | 4.0 | 12.8 | SE | 2 | 16 | NNE |
| Fri 21 12am | 3.9 | 12.6 | SE | 3 | 14 | NNE |
| Fri 21 03am | 3.7 | 12.5 | ESE | 3 | 15 | NE |
| Fri 21 06am | 3.4 | 12.4 | ESE | 3 | 13 | NE |
| Fri 21 09am | 3.0 | 12.3 | ESE | 3 | 10 | E |
| Fri 21 12pm | 2.7 | 12.0 | ESE | 2 | 8 | ENE |
| Fri 21 03pm | 2.4 | 11.8 | ESE | 2 | 7 | ENE |
| Fri 21 06pm | 2.3 | 11.7 | ESE | 2 | 6 | NE |
| Fri 21 09pm | 2.3 | 11.6 | ESE | 1 | 6 | E |
| Sat 22 12am | 2.3 | 11.7 | ESE | 1 | 2 | SSW |
| Sat 22 03am | 2.3 | 12.3 | ESE | 1 | 7 | SW |
| Sat 22 06am | 2.4 | 11.8 | ESE | 1 | 9 | WSW |
| Sat 22 09am | 2.4 | 11.6 | ESE | 1 | 14 | WSW |
| Sat 22 12pm | 2.3 | 11.1 | ESE | 1 | 13 | W |
| Sat 22 03pm | 2.1 | 11.0 | ESE | 0 | 14 | NW |
| Sat 22 06pm | 1.9 | 10.8 | ESE | 0 | 9 | NW |
| Sat 22 09pm | 1.8 | 10.5 | ESE | 0 | 9 | NNW |
| Sun 23 12am | 1.7 | 10.4 | ESE | 0 | 13 | NNE |
| Sun 23 03am | 1.7 | 10.3 | ESE | 1 | 12 | NNE |
| Sun 23 06am | 1.7 | 10.1 | ESE | 1 | 11 | NNE |
| Sun 23 09am | 1.7 | 9.9 | ESE | 1 | 11 | ENE |
| Sun 23 12pm | 1.6 | 9.8 | ESE | 2 | 10 | E |
| Sun 23 03pm | 1.5 | 9.7 | ESE | 2 | 7 | ESE |
| Sun 23 06pm | 1.3 | 9.6 | ESE | 2 | 6 | ESE |
| Sun 23 09pm | 1.3 | 9.4 | ESE | 2 | 7 | SE |
| Mon 24 12am | 1.2 | 9.2 | ESE | 2 | 8 | SE |
| Mon 24 03am | 1.2 | 9.0 | ESE | 2 | 9 | ESE |
| Mon 24 06am | 1.3 | 9.0 | ESE | 2 | 5 | SE |
| Mon 24 09am | 1.3 | 8.9 | ESE | 2 | 7 | SE |
| Mon 24 12pm | 1.3 | 8.9 | ESE | 2 | 8 | SSE |
| Mon 24 03pm | 1.2 | 9.0 | ESE | 3 | 9 | SSE |
| Mon 24 06pm | 1.1 | 9.3 | ESE | 3 | 10 | SSE |
| Mon 24 09pm | 1.0 | 9.5 | ESE | 3 | 12 | S |
| Tue 25 12am | 0.9 | 9.6 | ESE | 4 | 12 | SSW |
| Tue 25 03am | 0.9 | 9.9 | ESE | 3 | 13 | SSW |
| Tue 25 06am | 0.9 | 10.9 | ESE | 3 | 11 | WSW |
| Tue 25 09am | 0.9 | 10.5 | ESE | 3 | 7 | SW |
| Tue 25 12pm | 0.8 | 10.3 | ESE | 3 | 7 | S |
| Tue 25 03pm | 0.8 | 10.2 | ESE | 3 | 8 | S |
| Tue 25 06pm | 0.9 | 10.0 | ESE | 3 | 4 | SSW |
| Tue 25 09pm | 1.1 | 9.8 | ESE | 3 | 11 | S |
| Wed 26 12am | 1.3 | 5.1 | SSE | 4 | 10 | S |
| Wed 26 03am | 1.5 | 5.1 | SSE | 4 | 11 | S |
| Wed 26 06am | 1.7 | 5.3 | SSE | 4 | 10 | S |
| Wed 26 09am | 1.9 | 5.6 | SSE | 5 | 11 | S |
| Wed 26 12pm | 2.1 | 5.6 | SSE | 5 | 12 | S |
| Wed 26 03pm | 2.3 | 5.8 | SSE | 6 | 13 | S |
| Wed 26 06pm | 2.7 | 6.0 | SSE | 6 | 15 | SSE |
| Wed 26 09pm | 3.1 | 6.1 | SSE | 7 | 19 | S |
| Thu 27 12am | 3.4 | 6.9 | SSE | 7 | 18 | S |
| Thu 27 03am | 3.6 | 7.4 | SSE | 7 | 15 | SSW |
| Thu 27 06am | 3.6 | 7.5 | SSE | 7 | 15 | SSW |
| Thu 27 09am | 3.4 | 7.4 | SSE | 6 | 15 | SW |
| Thu 27 12pm | 3.2 | 7.4 | SE | 6 | 13 | SSW |
| Thu 27 03pm | 3.0 | 7.3 | SE | 5 | 13 | S |
| Thu 27 06pm | 2.8 | 7.2 | SE | 5 | 12 | SSW |
Surf Break: Folly Beach
NOAA “buddy” buoy: 41076
| Date | SST | WaveHT | DomPeriod | SwellHT | SwellPeriod | SwellDir | WindWaveHT | WindPeriod | WWaveDir |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 12 04:35 pm | NA | 2.3 | 4.1 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Wed 12 03:35 pm | NA | 2.0 | 4.2 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Wed 12 02:35 pm | NA | 2.0 | 4.3 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Wed 12 01:35 pm | NA | 2.0 | 4.1 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Wed 12 12:35 pm | NA | 2.0 | 4.5 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Wed 12 11:35 am | NA | 2.0 | 4.6 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Wed 12 10:35 am | NA | 2.0 | 4.8 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Wed 12 09:35 am | NA | 2.0 | 4.9 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Wed 12 08:35 am | NA | 2.0 | 4.5 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Wed 12 07:35 am | NA | 2.0 | 4.7 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Wed 12 06:35 am | NA | 2.0 | 4.7 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Wed 12 05:35 am | NA | 2.0 | 4.6 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Wed 12 04:35 am | NA | 2.3 | 4.7 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Wed 12 03:35 am | NA | 2.3 | 4.6 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Wed 12 02:35 am | NA | 2.3 | 4.5 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Wed 12 01:35 am | NA | 2.3 | 4.5 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Wed 12 12:35 am | NA | 2.3 | 4.9 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 11:35 pm | NA | 2.6 | 5.0 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 10:35 pm | NA | 2.6 | 5.1 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 09:35 pm | NA | 2.6 | 5.3 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 08:35 pm | NA | 2.6 | 5.4 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 07:35 pm | NA | 3.0 | 5.7 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 06:35 pm | NA | 3.0 | 6.1 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 05:35 pm | NA | 3.0 | 6.0 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 04:35 pm | NA | 2.6 | 5.6 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 03:35 pm | NA | 2.6 | 5.1 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 02:35 pm | NA | 2.6 | 5.1 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 01:35 pm | NA | 3.0 | 5.1 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 12:35 pm | NA | 2.6 | 4.5 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 11:35 am | NA | 2.6 | 4.4 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 10:35 am | NA | 3.0 | 4.3 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 09:35 am | NA | 3.3 | 4.4 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 08:35 am | NA | 3.6 | 4.5 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 07:35 am | NA | 3.9 | 4.3 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 06:35 am | NA | 4.6 | 4.7 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 05:35 am | NA | 4.6 | 4.1 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 04:35 am | NA | 4.9 | 4.1 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 03:35 am | NA | 4.6 | 4.3 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 02:35 am | NA | 5.2 | 4.4 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 01:35 am | NA | 4.6 | 4.3 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Tue 11 12:35 am | NA | 4.6 | 4.5 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 11:35 pm | NA | 4.3 | 4.3 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 10:35 pm | NA | 4.3 | 4.4 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 09:35 pm | NA | 4.3 | 4.6 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 08:35 pm | NA | 4.6 | 5.1 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 07:35 pm | NA | 4.6 | 4.9 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 06:35 pm | NA | 5.2 | 6.1 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 05:35 pm | NA | 4.3 | 4.6 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 04:35 pm | NA | 4.6 | 4.7 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 03:35 pm | NA | 4.6 | 4.7 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 02:35 pm | NA | 4.6 | 4.7 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 01:35 pm | NA | 4.9 | 4.7 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 11:35 am | NA | 4.6 | 4.9 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 10:35 am | NA | 4.3 | 4.7 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 09:35 am | NA | 3.9 | 4.4 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 08:35 am | NA | 3.9 | 4.4 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 07:35 am | NA | 3.6 | 4.1 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 06:35 am | NA | 3.6 | 4.1 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 05:35 am | NA | 3.6 | 4.1 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 04:35 am | NA | 3.6 | 4.1 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 03:35 am | NA | 3.3 | 4.2 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 02:35 am | NA | 3.0 | 4.4 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 01:35 am | NA | 3.3 | 4.6 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Mon 10 12:35 am | NA | 3.0 | 4.5 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 11:35 pm | NA | 3.3 | 4.4 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 10:35 pm | NA | 3.3 | 4.4 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 09:35 pm | NA | 3.3 | 4.2 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 08:35 pm | NA | 3.3 | 4.5 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 07:35 pm | NA | 3.6 | 4.4 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 06:35 pm | NA | 3.3 | 4.5 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 05:35 pm | NA | 3.3 | 4.5 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 04:35 pm | NA | 3.6 | 4.6 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 03:35 pm | NA | 3.9 | 4.7 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 02:35 pm | NA | 4.3 | 4.6 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 01:35 pm | NA | 4.6 | 4.7 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 12:35 pm | NA | 4.6 | 4.7 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 11:35 am | NA | 5.2 | 5.9 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 10:35 am | NA | 4.6 | 5.1 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 09:35 am | NA | 4.9 | 5.3 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 08:35 am | NA | 6.6 | 6.6 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 07:35 am | NA | 5.6 | 5.1 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 06:35 am | NA | 4.9 | 4.6 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 05:35 am | NA | 4.6 | 4.5 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 04:35 am | NA | 3.9 | 4.0 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 03:35 am | NA | 3.0 | 3.6 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 02:35 am | NA | 2.3 | 3.6 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 01:35 am | NA | 2.6 | 4.2 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sun 09 12:35 am | NA | 2.6 | 4.2 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sat 08 11:35 pm | NA | 3.0 | 4.3 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sat 08 10:35 pm | NA | 3.3 | 4.2 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sat 08 09:35 pm | NA | 3.3 | 4.3 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sat 08 07:35 pm | NA | 3.6 | 4.2 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sat 08 06:35 pm | NA | 3.6 | 4.2 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sat 08 05:35 pm | NA | 3.9 | 4.3 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sat 08 04:35 pm | NA | 3.9 | 4.4 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
| Sat 08 03:35 pm | NA | 3.6 | 4.4 | NA | NA | NULL | NA | NA | NULL |
Surf Break: Folly Beach
NOAA Tide Site: 8666467
| DateTime | Level(ft) | HighLow |
|---|---|---|
| Wed 12 06:06 am | 5.5 | H |
| Wed 12 11:50 am | 0.0 | L |
| Wed 12 06:27 pm | 5.3 | H |
| Thu 13 12:02 am | -0.2 | L |
| Thu 13 06:43 am | 5.5 | H |
| Thu 13 12:28 pm | -0.1 | L |
| Thu 13 07:06 pm | 5.5 | H |
| Fri 14 12:45 am | -0.2 | L |
| Fri 14 07:19 am | 5.4 | H |
| Fri 14 01:03 pm | -0.1 | L |
| Fri 14 07:44 pm | 5.5 | H |
| Sat 15 01:24 am | -0.2 | L |
| Sat 15 07:53 am | 5.3 | H |
| Sat 15 01:34 pm | 0.0 | L |
| Sat 15 08:19 pm | 5.5 | H |
| Sun 16 02:02 am | 0.0 | L |
| Sun 16 08:27 am | 5.1 | H |
| Sun 16 02:04 pm | 0.1 | L |
| Sun 16 08:52 pm | 5.5 | H |
| Mon 17 02:38 am | 0.1 | L |
| Mon 17 09:00 am | 4.9 | H |
| Mon 17 02:33 pm | 0.2 | L |
| Mon 17 09:24 pm | 5.4 | H |
| Tue 18 03:15 am | 0.4 | L |
| Tue 18 09:34 am | 4.7 | H |
| Tue 18 03:03 pm | 0.4 | L |
| Tue 18 09:55 pm | 5.2 | H |
| Wed 19 03:53 am | 0.6 | L |
| Wed 19 10:09 am | 4.5 | H |
| Wed 19 03:37 pm | 0.5 | L |
| Wed 19 10:31 pm | 5.1 | H |
| Thu 20 04:37 am | 0.8 | L |
| Thu 20 10:49 am | 4.3 | H |
| Thu 20 04:18 pm | 0.7 | L |
| Thu 20 11:15 pm | 5.0 | H |
| Fri 21 05:28 am | 1.0 | L |
| Fri 21 11:37 am | 4.2 | H |
| Fri 21 05:10 pm | 0.7 | L |
| Sat 22 12:10 am | 5.0 | H |
| Sat 22 06:26 am | 1.0 | L |
| Sat 22 12:34 pm | 4.1 | H |
| Sat 22 06:12 pm | 0.8 | L |
| Sun 23 01:15 am | 5.0 | H |
| Sun 23 07:27 am | 1.0 | L |
| Sun 23 01:37 pm | 4.2 | H |
| Sun 23 07:20 pm | 0.7 | L |
| Mon 24 02:24 am | 5.1 | H |
| Mon 24 08:27 am | 0.8 | L |
| Mon 24 02:44 pm | 4.5 | H |
| Mon 24 08:28 pm | 0.4 | L |
| Tue 25 03:30 am | 5.3 | H |
| Tue 25 09:23 am | 0.4 | L |
| Tue 25 03:49 pm | 4.9 | H |
| Tue 25 09:33 pm | 0.1 | L |
| Wed 26 04:29 am | 5.6 | H |
| Wed 26 10:16 am | 0.1 | L |
| Wed 26 04:46 pm | 5.4 | H |
| Wed 26 10:32 pm | -0.2 | L |
| Thu 27 05:20 am | 5.9 | H |
| Thu 27 11:05 am | -0.3 | L |
| Thu 27 05:38 pm | 5.9 | H |
Narrative & Links
This visual provides an overview of the likelihood of surfable conditions at your chosen break over the next two weeks.
Check the tips for more help, but this is a simple “chance-of-surf” map for date/time and surf height level.
It uses ensembles to derive the probabilities from the wave models that surf at any spot on earth will be above whatever threshold we define. Fully Interactive!
What is this product?
- This product analyzes past model wave forecasts against actual observed wave conditions (represented by the “model wave analysis” in red).
Motivation
Given the abundance of historical wave data, we can leverage past performance to identify trends and biases in current forecasts. The underlying assumption is that past performance provides valuable insights into future forecast accuracy.
Key Concepts
- Historical Trend Analysis:
- Analyze recent swell events (e.g., last month) to identify recurring patterns like bias in max swell. I’m just now absorbing this new data but see cases where the model is over-estimating max surf height during bigger swells. Just one case but example of benefit from this look at historic data.
- Forecastable Window Assessment:
- Determine the reliable forecast horizon. If historical data consistently shows poor model performance beyond 7-10 days, it’s unlikely to improve significantly in the near future without evidence of improved repeatability.
Key Benefit
- This real-time update provides valuable insights into the current forecast’s reliability by evaluating historical model performance.
Surf Break Dashboards
North Carolina
Naggs Head - Jennette’s PierHatteras-OXB East Facing
Atlantic Beach
Surf City - Topsail Island
Wrightsville Beach
Carolina Beach
Oak Island Ocean Crest
Oak Island Yaupon Pier
South Carolina
Surfside and Myrtle BeachFolly - Charleston Area Beaches
Florida
Jacksonville
Beach
Ormond &
Daytona Beach
Ponce Inlet - New
Smyrna
Cocoa Beach,FL
Jupiter Inlet,FL
Surf Break Dashboards
New York
Long-Lido Beach, Long IslandNew Jersey
Atlantic City & South NJOcean City MD
Virginia Beach
Surf Break Dashboards
California
Santa Cruz & Monterey BayRincon & Santa Barbara
Trestles & San Clemente
Oceanside Pier
Blacks & San Diego
Hawaii
Pipeline & The North ShoreNext phase addition –> Ocean Beach
Next phase addition –>
Oregon & Washington General
Surf Break Dashboards
Pipeline & The North Shore January 27 - February
8
Stop No. 2 - Surf Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE: February 14 - 16
Stop No. 3 - Peniche, Portugal: March 15 -
25
Stop No. 4 - Punta Roca, El Salvador: April 2 - 12
Stop
No. 5 - Bells Beach, Victoria, Australia: April 18 - 28
Stop No. 6
- Snapper Rocks, Queensland, Australia: May 3 - 13
Stop No. 7 -
Margaret River, Western Australia, Australia: May 17 - 27
Stop
No. 8 - Lower Trestles, San Clemente, Calif., USA: June 9 - 17
Stop
No. 9 - Saquarema, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: June 21 - 29
Stop No. 10
- Jeffreys Bay, South Africa: July 11 - 20
Stop No. 11 - Teahupo’o,
Tahiti, French Polynesia: August 7 - 16
Stop No. 12 - WSL Finals -
Cloudbreak, Fiji: August 27 - September 4
Surf Break Dashboards
Barbados
Barbados Duppies, Maycocks & TropicanaBarbados Bathsheba Points
Barbados South, Surfer’s Point & Brandons
Rincon Point, Puerto Rico
Next phase
addition –> Dominican Republic
Surf Break Dashboards
Supertubos Peniche, Portugal
Ericeira Points, Portugal
Carcavelos, Lisbon, Portugal
Next phase
addition –> Hossegor
Next phase addition –> Ericeria-Peniche
Next phase addition –> Cornwall
Surf Break Dashboards
Next phase addition –> Puerto Escondido, Mexico
Next phase
addition –> Salina Cruz, Mexico
Next phase addition –> Punta
Roca, El Salvador
Next phase addition –> Tamarindo, Costa Rica
Surf Break Dashboards
Next phase addition –> Bells Beach
Next phase addition –>
Snapper Rocks
Next phase addition –> Margaret River
Surf Break Dashboards
Next phase addition –> Cloudbreak Fiji
Next phase addition
–> Uluwatu