SpaghettiSurf

Surf Break: Santa Cruz – Last Run: 2025-03-12 18:00:00

Details

Narrative & Links

SpaghettiSurf is inspired by hurricane spaghetti models, which visualize the uncertainty in storm tracks. By applying this concept to surf forecasting, SpaghettiSurf aims to provide quantitative bounds and probabilistic estimates for both short-term and long-range forecasts, offering surfers a clearer understanding of the potential range of wave conditions. We plan video discussions of swell events in the future to promote the use.

SurfTable

S-M Wave & Wind Tables: Santa Cruz

Colored cells based on values. In most cases colors align mentally with conditions as in cooler colors of blues = calm, small, favorable – while warmer-to-hot colors such as reds-yellows = unfavorable except surf size.
DateTime	Surf(ft)	Max Period (s)	Wave Dir	Chop Index	Wind(kt)	Wind Dir
Wed 12 06pm	3.4	15.0	WNW	10	21	S
Wed 12 07pm	3.3	14.7	WNW	10	21	SSW
Wed 12 08pm	3.3	14.6	WNW	10	20	S
Wed 12 09pm	3.3	14.5	WNW	10	24	S
Wed 12 10pm	3.3	14.4	WNW	10	29	SSW
Wed 12 11pm	3.3	14.4	WNW	10	28	SSW
Thu 13 12am	3.5	14.3	WNW	10	19	WSW
Thu 13 01am	3.9	14.3	WNW	10	18	SSW
Thu 13 02am	4.7	14.2	WNW	10	21	SSW
Thu 13 03am	5.9	14.0	WNW	10	24	WSW
Thu 13 04am	7.3	13.6	WNW	10	17	W
Thu 13 05am	8.6	13.3	W	10	21	W
Thu 13 06am	9.4	13.1	W	10	17	W
Thu 13 07am	9.8	12.9	W	10	17	WSW
Thu 13 08am	9.9	12.8	W	10	16	W
Thu 13 09am	9.9	12.8	W	9	15	W
Thu 13 10am	9.9	12.9	W	9	21	NW
Thu 13 11am	9.9	12.9	W	8	17	WNW
Thu 13 12pm	9.9	13.0	W	7	10	WNW
Thu 13 01pm	9.8	13.1	W	6	5	SSW
Thu 13 02pm	9.8	13.2	W	6	6	NW
Thu 13 03pm	9.7	13.3	W	6	10	NW
Thu 13 04pm	9.5	13.4	W	7	16	NW
Thu 13 05pm	9.3	13.5	W	8	18	WNW
Thu 13 06pm	9.1	13.5	W	9	27	NW
Thu 13 07pm	8.8	13.4	W	9	17	NW
Thu 13 08pm	8.5	13.4	W	9	18	WNW
Thu 13 09pm	8.2	13.3	W	9	19	NW
Thu 13 10pm	7.9	13.3	W	9	20	NW
Thu 13 11pm	7.7	13.2	W	9	20	NW
Fri 14 12am	7.5	13.1	W	8	18	NW
Fri 14 01am	7.4	13.0	W	7	15	WNW
Fri 14 02am	7.4	12.9	W	6	10	WNW
Fri 14 03am	7.4	12.8	W	5	10	W
Fri 14 04am	7.3	12.8	W	4	9	NW
Fri 14 05am	7.1	12.8	W	3	9	W
Fri 14 06am	6.9	12.8	W	3	2	NNE
Fri 14 07am	6.7	12.8	W	3	4	ENE
Fri 14 08am	6.6	12.9	WNW	4	6	WSW
Fri 14 09am	6.6	12.8	WNW	5	8	SW
Fri 14 10am	6.6	12.8	W	7	10	SSW
Fri 14 11am	6.7	8.4	W	8	22	SSE
Fri 14 12pm	6.8	8.7	W	9	22	SE
Fri 14 01pm	6.9	9.1	W	10	21	SE
Fri 14 02pm	7.0	9.5	W	10	21	SE
Fri 14 03pm	7.0	9.7	W	9	22	SE
Fri 14 04pm	7.1	9.8	W	8	19	SE
Fri 14 05pm	7.1	10.0	W	7	16	ESE
Fri 14 06pm	7.2	10.2	W	6	9	ENE
Fri 14 07pm	7.3	10.6	W	5	11	NW
Fri 14 08pm	7.4	10.9	W	3	9	NW
Fri 14 09pm	7.5	11.1	W	2	7	NW
Fri 14 10pm	7.6	11.2	W	1	6	NW
Fri 14 11pm	7.6	11.4	W	1	4	N
Sat 15 12am	7.5	11.5	W	0	5	NE
Sat 15 01am	7.5	11.7	W	0	8	ENE
Sat 15 02am	7.4	11.7	W	0	8	ENE
Sat 15 03am	7.2	11.8	W	0	7	ENE
Sat 15 04am	7.1	11.8	W	0	7	ENE
Sat 15 05am	7.0	11.8	W	0	7	ENE
Sat 15 06am	6.8	11.8	W	0	7	ENE
Sat 15 07am	6.7	11.8	W	0	7	E
Sat 15 08am	6.5	11.8	W	1	6	E
Sat 15 09am	6.4	11.8	W	1	4	E
Sat 15 10am	6.3	11.9	W	2	1	S
Sat 15 11am	6.1	11.9	W	3	2	SW
Sat 15 12pm	6.0	11.9	W	4	6	WSW
Sat 15 01pm	5.9	11.9	W	4	8	WSW
Sat 15 02pm	5.7	11.9	WNW	5	8	W
Sat 15 03pm	5.6	11.9	WNW	5	7	W
Sat 15 04pm	5.5	11.9	WNW	4	6	WSW
Sat 15 05pm	5.3	11.9	WNW	4	6	W
Sat 15 06pm	5.2	11.8	WNW	3	5	W
Sat 15 07pm	5.0	11.8	WNW	2	3	WNW
Sat 15 08pm	4.9	11.8	WNW	1	1	ENE
Sat 15 09pm	4.7	11.7	WNW	1	4	E
Sat 15 10pm	4.6	11.7	WNW	0	6	ESE
Sat 15 11pm	4.4	11.6	WNW	0	8	E
Sun 16 12am	4.3	11.5	WNW	0	9	E
Sun 16 01am	4.1	11.4	WNW	0	8	E
Sun 16 02am	4.0	11.4	WNW	0	8	E
Sun 16 03am	3.9	11.3	WNW	0	8	E
Sun 16 04am	3.7	11.3	WNW	0	8	E
Sun 16 05am	3.6	11.3	WNW	0	7	E
Sun 16 06am	3.4	11.3	WNW	0	6	E
Sun 16 07am	3.2	11.3	WNW	0	6	E
Sun 16 08am	3.4	17.6	WNW	1	6	ESE
Sun 16 09am	4.0	17.1	WNW	1	4	ESE
Sun 16 10am	4.9	16.8	WNW	2	3	SE
Sun 16 11am	5.7	16.7	WNW	3	3	SSE
Sun 16 12pm	6.3	16.6	WNW	4	7	SSE
Sun 16 01pm	6.7	16.6	WNW	5	11	S
Sun 16 02pm	7.0	16.5	WNW	6	14	SSW
Sun 16 03pm	7.2	16.4	WNW	7	17	SSW
Sun 16 04pm	7.3	16.3	WNW	8	16	SSW
Sun 16 05pm	7.4	16.0	WNW	8	19	SSW
Sun 16 06pm	7.5	15.7	WNW	9	22	SSW
Sun 16 07pm	7.6	15.6	WNW	9	22	SSW
Sun 16 08pm	7.9	15.6	WNW	10	21	SSW
Sun 16 09pm	8.2	15.5	WNW	9	23	S
Sun 16 10pm	8.6	15.4	WNW	9	23	SSW
Sun 16 11pm	8.9	15.3	W	8	17	WNW
Mon 17 12am	8.9	15.2	W	8	12	WNW
Mon 17 01am	8.7	15.1	W	7	9	W
Mon 17 02am	8.4	14.8	W	6	5	WSW
Mon 17 03am	8.1	14.6	W	6	9	SW
Mon 17 04am	7.8	14.5	W	6	10	WSW
Mon 17 05am	7.6	14.4	WNW	6	11	W
Mon 17 06am	7.7	14.3	WNW	7	11	W
Mon 17 07am	8.1	14.2	WNW	7	11	W
Mon 17 08am	8.7	14.2	W	8	11	W
Mon 17 09am	9.5	14.2	W	8	11	W
Mon 17 12pm	10.2	13.9	W	8	12	W
Mon 17 03pm	10.6	13.7	W	8	15	W
Mon 17 06pm	10.7	13.5	W	8	14	WNW
Mon 17 09pm	10.3	13.4	W	7	15	NW
Tue 18 12am	9.8	13.2	W	6	12	NW
Tue 18 03am	9.0	12.9	W	4	6	NNE
Tue 18 06am	8.2	12.7	W	4	5	E
Tue 18 09am	7.5	12.6	W	3	1	W
Tue 18 12pm	6.9	12.6	W	3	12	W
Tue 18 03pm	6.3	12.5	WNW	3	15	WNW
Tue 18 06pm	5.7	12.4	WNW	2	8	NNW
Tue 18 09pm	5.2	12.1	WNW	1	4	NE
Wed 19 12am	4.7	11.9	WNW	1	8	ESE
Wed 19 03am	4.3	11.8	WNW	1	6	NNE
Wed 19 06am	3.9	11.7	WNW	1	4	NE
Wed 19 09am	3.5	11.5	WNW	1	1	ESE
Wed 19 12pm	3.2	11.2	WNW	2	8	W
Wed 19 03pm	2.9	11.1	WNW	2	13	W
Wed 19 06pm	2.6	10.9	WNW	2	11	WNW
Wed 19 09pm	2.4	10.8	WNW	1	9	NE
Thu 20 12am	2.2	10.5	WNW	1	8	E
Thu 20 03am	2.2	10.4	WNW	1	6	ENE
Thu 20 06am	2.4	10.3	WNW	1	8	E
Thu 20 09am	2.7	10.2	WNW	1	1	NE
Thu 20 12pm	3.1	10.4	WNW	1	6	WSW
Thu 20 03pm	3.4	10.8	WNW	2	8	W
Thu 20 06pm	3.7	10.9	WNW	1	9	WNW
Thu 20 09pm	4.0	12.6	WNW	1	8	ENE
Fri 21 12am	4.3	12.3	WNW	1	5	NE
Fri 21 03am	4.7	11.9	WNW	1	6	ENE
Fri 21 06am	5.1	15.5	W	1	6	ENE
Fri 21 09am	5.4	15.3	W	2	2	E
Fri 21 12pm	5.6	15.1	W	3	12	WNW
Fri 21 03pm	5.5	14.6	WNW	4	18	WNW
Fri 21 06pm	5.3	14.2	WNW	4	10	W
Fri 21 09pm	5.1	13.9	WNW	4	6	SSW
Sat 22 12am	5.1	13.2	WNW	4	5	SW
Sat 22 03am	5.1	12.3	WNW	5	16	WSW
Sat 22 06am	5.3	12.1	WNW	5	12	NW
Sat 22 09am	5.4	11.8	WNW	5	5	NW
Sat 22 12pm	5.5	11.7	WNW	5	16	W
Sat 22 03pm	5.6	11.9	WNW	5	22	WNW
Sat 22 06pm	5.7	12.5	WNW	4	17	NW
Sat 22 09pm	5.9	12.8	WNW	3	10	NNW
Sun 23 12am	6.1	12.9	WNW	2	6	NNW
Sun 23 03am	6.5	13.2	WNW	2	5	N
Sun 23 06am	6.9	13.6	WNW	3	4	NE
Sun 23 09am	7.2	14.2	WNW	4	5	S
Sun 23 12pm	7.4	14.2	WNW	4	12	WNW
Sun 23 03pm	7.2	14.2	W	5	21	WNW
Sun 23 06pm	6.8	14.2	W	4	14	NW
Sun 23 09pm	6.2	14.1	W	4	5	NW
Mon 24 12am	5.7	13.6	WNW	3	2	NNE
Mon 24 03am	5.5	13.4	WNW	3	0	SSW
Mon 24 06am	5.6	13.4	W	3	3	ESE
Mon 24 09am	5.7	13.4	W	4	4	SSW
Mon 24 12pm	5.8	13.3	W	4	13	WNW
Mon 24 03pm	5.6	13.3	W	4	20	WNW
Mon 24 06pm	5.2	13.2	W	4	18	NW
Mon 24 09pm	5.0	19.3	WNW	3	5	NE
Tue 25 12am	5.3	19.0	WNW	2	2	E
Tue 25 03am	6.4	18.3	WNW	2	4	ESE
Tue 25 06am	7.5	17.9	WNW	2	4	ESE
Tue 25 09am	8.1	17.4	WNW	2	4	SSW
Tue 25 12pm	8.3	16.9	WNW	2	8	W
Tue 25 03pm	8.2	16.6	WNW	2	4	WNW
Tue 25 06pm	8.0	16.4	WNW	1	5	NNW
Tue 25 09pm	7.6	16.0	WNW	1	5	E
Wed 26 12am	7.1	15.6	WNW	1	4	E
Wed 26 03am	6.7	15.4	WNW	1	1	NW
Wed 26 06am	6.4	15.2	WNW	2	0	N
Wed 26 09am	6.0	14.9	WNW	3	3	W
Wed 26 12pm	5.7	14.5	WNW	4	11	W
Wed 26 03pm	5.3	14.3	WNW	4	21	WNW
Wed 26 06pm	4.8	14.2	WNW	5	15	W
Wed 26 09pm	4.3	14.0	WNW	5	8	WSW
Thu 27 12am	4.1	13.5	WNW	5	7	WSW
Thu 27 03am	4.2	13.4	WNW	6	17	NW
Thu 27 06am	4.7	13.3	WNW	7	19	WNW
Thu 27 09am	5.5	8.6	WNW	8	20	NW
Thu 27 12pm	6.5	11.2	WNW	9	25	WNW
Thu 27 03pm	7.6	11.7	WNW	10	23	WNW

Buoy

Surf Break: Santa Cruz

NOAA “buddy” buoy: 46284

Last 48 hours of buoy readings at the closest buoy to the surf break about 15 nautical miles from the beach. Note that surf size in tables may differ because these buoys are often offshore and surf size is estimated in the surf zone.
Date	SST	WaveHT	DomPeriod	SwellHT	SwellPeriod	SwellDir	WindWaveHT	WindPeriod	WWaveDir
Wed 12 05:00 pm	53.4	5.2	5.5	2.0	14.3	SW	4.9	6.9	SSW
Wed 12 04:30 pm	53.4	5.6	5.5	2.0	11.8	WSW	5.2	7.1	SSW
Wed 12 04:00 pm	53.4	5.6	5.3	2.0	15.4	WSW	5.2	6.9	SSW
Wed 12 03:30 pm	53.6	5.2	5.1	2.0	11.1	WSW	4.9	6.9	SSW
Wed 12 03:00 pm	53.6	5.6	5.3	2.0	15.4	SW	5.2	6.7	SSW
Wed 12 02:30 pm	53.6	5.6	5.2	1.6	15.4	WSW	5.6	6.5	SSW
Wed 12 02:00 pm	53.6	6.6	5.2	1.6	10.5	WSW	6.2	6.1	SSW
Wed 12 01:30 pm	53.6	7.2	5.4	2.0	15.4	WSW	7.2	6.5	SSW
Wed 12 01:00 pm	53.6	7.2	5.2	2.0	11.1	WSW	6.9	6.1	SSW
Wed 12 12:30 pm	53.6	7.2	5.3	1.6	11.8	WSW	6.9	6.2	SSW
Wed 12 12:00 pm	53.6	6.9	5.2	1.6	11.1	SW	6.9	6.2	SSW
Wed 12 11:30 am	53.6	6.6	5.0	1.6	12.5	WSW	6.6	6.5	SSW
Wed 12 11:00 am	53.6	5.9	4.8	1.6	12.5	SW	5.6	5.9	SSW
Wed 12 10:30 am	53.6	5.6	4.9	1.6	11.8	WSW	5.2	5.4	SSW
Wed 12 10:00 am	53.6	5.2	4.9	1.6	11.1	WSW	5.2	5.6	SSW
Wed 12 09:30 am	53.6	5.2	4.8	1.6	11.1	WSW	4.9	5.6	SSW
Wed 12 09:00 am	53.8	4.6	4.9	2.0	11.1	WSW	4.3	5.0	SSW
Wed 12 08:30 am	53.6	3.9	4.9	1.6	11.8	WSW	3.6	7.7	SW
Wed 12 08:00 am	53.6	3.6	5.0	2.0	11.8	WSW	3.0	7.7	SW
Wed 12 07:30 am	53.6	3.6	4.8	1.6	11.8	WSW	3.0	8.0	SW
Wed 12 07:00 am	53.6	3.6	5.4	2.3	12.5	WSW	3.0	8.3	SW
Wed 12 06:30 am	53.6	3.3	5.4	2.0	11.8	WSW	2.6	7.7	SW
Wed 12 06:00 am	53.4	3.6	5.5	2.0	11.8	WSW	2.6	7.7	SSW
Wed 12 05:30 am	53.4	3.3	6.1	2.0	12.5	WSW	2.6	8.3	SW
Wed 12 05:00 am	53.4	3.3	6.7	2.0	11.8	WSW	2.6	8.3	SW
Wed 12 04:30 am	53.6	3.3	7.2	2.3	12.5	WSW	2.3	7.7	SW
Wed 12 04:00 am	53.8	3.3	7.2	2.0	12.5	WSW	2.3	7.7	SW
Wed 12 03:30 am	53.8	3.0	7.1	2.0	12.5	WSW	2.3	7.7	SSW
Wed 12 03:00 am	53.8	3.3	7.5	2.0	11.8	WSW	2.3	8.7	SW
Wed 12 02:30 am	53.8	3.3	7.5	2.0	12.5	WSW	2.6	8.0	SSW
Wed 12 02:00 am	53.8	3.3	7.7	2.3	12.5	WSW	2.6	8.0	SSW
Wed 12 01:30 am	53.8	3.6	7.9	2.6	12.5	WSW	2.6	8.7	SSW
Wed 12 01:00 am	53.8	3.6	8.1	2.6	12.5	WSW	2.6	9.1	SSW
Wed 12 12:30 am	54.0	3.3	8.1	2.3	11.8	WSW	2.6	8.3	SSW
Wed 12 12:00 am	54.0	3.6	8.3	2.3	12.5	WSW	2.6	8.7	SW
Tue 11 11:30 pm	54.0	3.6	8.0	2.3	12.5	WSW	2.6	8.0	SW
Tue 11 11:00 pm	54.0	3.3	7.8	2.0	11.1	WSW	2.6	8.7	SW
Tue 11 10:30 pm	54.0	3.3	8.0	2.3	12.5	WSW	2.6	8.3	SW
Tue 11 10:00 pm	54.0	3.6	8.1	2.3	13.3	WSW	2.6	8.7	SW
Tue 11 09:30 pm	54.0	3.6	8.3	2.3	13.3	WSW	2.6	9.5	SW
Tue 11 09:00 pm	54.0	3.9	8.4	2.6	12.5	WSW	3.0	8.7	SSW
Tue 11 08:30 pm	54.0	3.9	8.5	2.6	12.5	WSW	3.0	8.3	SW
Tue 11 08:00 pm	54.0	3.9	8.6	2.6	13.3	WSW	3.0	9.1	SW
Tue 11 07:30 pm	54.0	3.9	8.2	2.6	11.8	WSW	2.6	8.7	SSW
Tue 11 07:00 pm	54.0	4.3	8.2	3.0	12.5	WSW	3.0	9.1	SW
Tue 11 06:30 pm	54.0	3.9	7.3	2.6	12.5	WSW	3.0	9.1	SW
Tue 11 06:00 pm	54.0	4.3	7.4	3.0	12.5	WSW	3.0	8.7	SW
Tue 11 05:30 pm	54.1	4.3	7.5	3.0	12.5	WSW	3.0	8.3	SW
Tue 11 05:00 pm	54.3	4.6	7.4	3.0	11.8	WSW	3.3	9.5	SW
Tue 11 04:30 pm	54.3	4.6	7.5	3.0	12.5	WSW	3.3	9.5	SW
Tue 11 04:00 pm	54.3	4.3	6.9	3.0	12.5	WSW	3.3	8.7	SW
Tue 11 03:30 pm	54.3	4.6	6.9	3.0	12.5	WSW	3.3	9.1	SW
Tue 11 03:00 pm	54.3	4.3	7.2	3.0	12.5	WSW	3.3	9.5	SW
Tue 11 02:30 pm	54.3	4.6	7.5	3.3	13.3	WSW	3.3	8.7	SW
Tue 11 02:00 pm	54.3	4.3	7.4	3.0	13.3	WSW	3.0	8.0	SW
Tue 11 01:30 pm	54.3	4.3	7.7	3.0	13.3	WSW	3.0	9.5	SW
Tue 11 01:00 pm	54.3	3.9	7.5	2.6	13.3	WSW	3.0	9.5	SW
Tue 11 12:30 pm	54.5	3.9	7.9	3.0	12.5	WSW	2.6	9.1	SW
Tue 11 12:00 pm	54.7	4.3	8.2	3.0	13.3	WSW	3.0	9.1	SW
Tue 11 11:30 am	54.1	3.9	8.3	2.6	13.3	WSW	3.0	8.7	SW
Tue 11 11:00 am	54.3	3.9	8.5	2.6	13.3	WSW	3.0	8.3	SW
Tue 11 10:30 am	54.7	4.3	8.6	3.0	13.3	WSW	3.3	9.5	SW
Tue 11 10:00 am	54.5	4.6	8.6	3.0	13.3	WSW	3.3	9.5	SW
Tue 11 09:30 am	54.0	4.6	8.7	3.3	13.3	WSW	3.6	9.5	SW
Tue 11 09:00 am	53.8	4.3	8.7	3.0	13.3	WSW	3.3	9.1	SW
Tue 11 08:30 am	54.0	4.9	8.7	3.0	13.3	WSW	3.6	8.7	SSW
Tue 11 08:00 am	53.8	4.9	9.0	3.3	14.3	WSW	3.6	9.5	SSW
Tue 11 07:30 am	54.0	5.2	9.0	3.6	14.3	WSW	3.6	9.5	SW
Tue 11 07:00 am	53.8	5.2	9.2	3.9	10.0	SW	3.6	9.5	SW
Tue 11 06:30 am	53.8	5.9	9.1	3.9	10.0	SW	4.3	9.5	SW
Tue 11 06:00 am	53.6	4.9	9.0	3.6	14.3	WSW	3.3	9.5	SSW
Tue 11 05:30 am	53.8	5.2	8.9	3.6	10.5	SW	3.6	9.1	SSW
Tue 11 05:00 am	54.0	5.6	9.3	3.9	14.3	WSW	3.9	9.1	SW
Tue 11 04:30 am	54.0	5.2	9.2	3.9	10.5	SW	3.3	9.5	SW
Tue 11 04:00 am	54.0	5.2	8.7	3.6	10.0	SW	3.9	9.5	SW
Tue 11 03:30 am	54.0	5.2	8.8	3.6	14.3	WSW	3.9	8.7	SW
Tue 11 03:00 am	54.0	5.2	9.0	3.6	14.3	WSW	3.6	9.1	SW
Tue 11 02:30 am	54.0	5.6	9.2	3.9	14.3	WSW	3.9	8.7	SW
Tue 11 02:00 am	53.8	4.9	8.7	3.6	14.3	WSW	3.6	9.1	SW
Tue 11 01:30 am	53.8	5.2	8.8	3.6	15.4	WSW	3.6	9.1	SW
Tue 11 01:00 am	53.8	5.2	9.0	3.9	14.3	WSW	3.6	6.9	SW
Tue 11 12:30 am	53.8	4.9	8.6	3.6	14.3	WSW	3.3	8.7	SW
Tue 11 12:00 am	53.8	4.9	8.6	3.6	14.3	WSW	3.3	8.3	WSW
Mon 10 11:30 pm	54.0	4.6	8.4	3.3	14.3	WSW	3.3	7.4	SW
Mon 10 11:00 pm	54.0	4.9	9.1	3.9	14.3	WSW	3.0	8.0	WSW
Mon 10 10:30 pm	54.0	5.2	9.1	3.9	14.3	WSW	3.3	8.0	SW
Mon 10 10:00 pm	54.0	4.9	9.1	3.9	14.3	WSW	3.0	8.3	SW
Mon 10 09:30 pm	54.0	5.2	8.8	3.9	14.3	WSW	3.6	8.0	WSW
Mon 10 09:00 pm	54.0	5.2	9.0	3.9	14.3	WSW	3.0	6.1	SW
Mon 10 08:30 pm	54.1	5.2	8.8	3.6	14.3	WSW	3.6	6.7	SW
Mon 10 08:00 pm	54.3	4.9	8.4	3.3	14.3	WSW	3.6	8.3	WSW
Mon 10 07:30 pm	54.3	5.2	9.0	3.6	14.3	WSW	3.6	7.4	SW
Mon 10 07:00 pm	54.3	4.9	8.7	3.3	14.3	WSW	3.3	8.3	WSW
Mon 10 06:30 pm	54.3	4.9	9.3	3.9	14.3	WSW	3.3	7.4	WSW
Mon 10 06:00 pm	54.3	4.9	9.2	3.6	14.3	WSW	3.3	8.3	WSW
Mon 10 05:30 pm	54.3	4.6	8.9	3.3	14.3	WSW	3.3	7.4	WSW

Tide

Surf Break: Santa Cruz

NOAA Tide Site: 9411270

DateTime	Level(ft)	HighLow
Wed 12 07:15 am	5.4	H
Wed 12 01:51 pm	-0.6	L
Wed 12 08:11 pm	4.6	H
Thu 13 01:47 am	0.9	L
Thu 13 07:49 am	5.3	H
Thu 13 02:14 pm	-0.3	L
Thu 13 08:30 pm	4.7	H
Fri 14 02:20 am	0.7	L
Fri 14 08:21 am	5.0	H
Fri 14 02:34 pm	0.1	L
Fri 14 08:50 pm	4.9	H
Sat 15 02:52 am	0.5	L
Sat 15 08:53 am	4.6	H
Sat 15 02:53 pm	0.5	L
Sat 15 09:09 pm	4.9	H
Sun 16 03:25 am	0.5	L
Sun 16 09:26 am	4.1	H
Sun 16 03:10 pm	1.0	L
Sun 16 09:29 pm	5.0	H
Mon 17 04:01 am	0.5	L
Mon 17 10:02 am	3.6	H
Mon 17 03:25 pm	1.4	L
Mon 17 09:49 pm	4.9	H
Tue 18 04:42 am	0.6	L
Tue 18 10:44 am	3.1	H
Tue 18 03:37 pm	1.8	L
Tue 18 10:13 pm	4.8	H
Wed 19 05:33 am	0.8	L
Wed 19 11:43 am	2.6	H
Wed 19 03:37 pm	2.2	L
Wed 19 10:41 pm	4.6	H
Thu 20 06:49 am	1.0	L
Thu 20 11:23 pm	4.4	H
Fri 21 08:42 am	0.9	L
Sat 22 12:49 am	4.2	H
Sat 22 10:10 am	0.5	L
Sun 23 02:50 am	4.3	H
Sun 23 11:02 am	0.1	L
Sun 23 06:28 pm	3.4	H
Sun 23 10:15 pm	3.1	L
Mon 24 04:11 am	4.7	H
Mon 24 11:39 am	-0.3	L
Mon 24 06:30 pm	3.7	H
Mon 24 11:10 pm	2.4	L
Tue 25 05:08 am	5.1	H
Tue 25 12:11 pm	-0.7	L
Tue 25 06:44 pm	4.1	H
Tue 25 11:54 pm	1.7	L
Wed 26 05:56 am	5.4	H
Wed 26 12:42 pm	-0.8	L
Wed 26 07:04 pm	4.5	H
Thu 27 12:37 am	1.0	L
Thu 27 06:42 am	5.6	H
Thu 27 01:11 pm	-0.8	L

SurfChance

Narrative & Links

This visual provides an overview of the likelihood of surfable conditions at your chosen break over the next two weeks.

Check the tips for more help, but this is a simple “chance-of-surf” map for date/time and surf height level.

It uses ensembles to derive the probabilities from the wave models that surf at any spot on earth will be above whatever threshold we define. Fully Interactive!

Eval

Row

Last 30 Days

Why??

What is this product?

This product analyzes past model wave forecasts against actual observed wave conditions (represented by the “model wave analysis” in red).

Motivation

Given the abundance of historical wave data, we can leverage past performance to identify trends and biases in current forecasts. The underlying assumption is that past performance provides valuable insights into future forecast accuracy.

Key Concepts

Historical Trend Analysis:
- Analyze recent swell events (e.g., last month) to identify recurring patterns like bias in max swell. I’m just now absorbing this new data but see cases where the model is over-estimating max surf height during bigger swells. Just one case but example of benefit from this look at historic data.
Forecastable Window Assessment:
- Determine the reliable forecast horizon. If historical data consistently shows poor model performance beyond 7-10 days, it’s unlikely to improve significantly in the near future without evidence of improved repeatability.

Key Benefit

This real-time update provides valuable insights into the current forecast’s reliability by evaluating historical model performance.

SurfBreaks

Row

SE USA

Surf Break Dashboards

NE USA

Surf Break Dashboards

New York

Long-Lido Beach, Long Island

New Jersey

Atlantic City & South NJ
Ocean City MD
Virginia Beach

Cali-Hawaii

Surf Break Dashboards

California

Santa Cruz & Monterey Bay
Rincon & Santa Barbara
Trestles & San Clemente
Oceanside Pier
Blacks & San Diego

Hawaii

Pipeline & The North Shore

Next phase addition –> Ocean Beach
Next phase addition –> Oregon & Washington General

WSL-2025

Surf Break Dashboards

Pipeline & The North Shore January 27 - February 8
Stop No. 2 - Surf Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE: February 14 - 16
Stop No. 3 - Peniche, Portugal: March 15 - 25
Stop No. 4 - Punta Roca, El Salvador: April 2 - 12
Stop No. 5 - Bells Beach, Victoria, Australia: April 18 - 28
Stop No. 6 - Snapper Rocks, Queensland, Australia: May 3 - 13
Stop No. 7 - Margaret River, Western Australia, Australia: May 17 - 27
Stop No. 8 - Lower Trestles, San Clemente, Calif., USA: June 9 - 17
Stop No. 9 - Saquarema, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: June 21 - 29
Stop No. 10 - Jeffreys Bay, South Africa: July 11 - 20
Stop No. 11 - Teahupo’o, Tahiti, French Polynesia: August 7 - 16
Stop No. 12 - WSL Finals - Cloudbreak, Fiji: August 27 - September 4

Islands

Surf Break Dashboards

Barbados

Barbados Duppies, Maycocks & Tropicana
Barbados Bathsheba Points
Barbados South, Surfer’s Point & Brandons

Rincon Point, Puerto Rico
Next phase addition –> Dominican Republic

Europe

Surf Break Dashboards

Supertubos Peniche, Portugal
Ericeira Points, Portugal
Carcavelos, Lisbon, Portugal
Next phase addition –> Hossegor
Next phase addition –> Ericeria-Peniche
Next phase addition –> Cornwall

WPacific

Surf Break Dashboards

Next phase addition –> Puerto Escondido, Mexico
Next phase addition –> Salina Cruz, Mexico
Next phase addition –> Punta Roca, El Salvador
Next phase addition –> Tamarindo, Costa Rica

Australia

Surf Break Dashboards

Next phase addition –> Bells Beach
Next phase addition –> Snapper Rocks
Next phase addition –> Margaret River

SpaghettiSurf

Details

Narrative & Links

SurfTable

S-M Wave & Wind Tables: Santa Cruz

Buoy

Surf Break: Santa Cruz

NOAA “buddy” buoy: 46284

Tide

Surf Break: Santa Cruz

NOAA Tide Site: 9411270

SurfChance

Narrative & Links

Eval

Row

Last 30 Days

Why??

SurfBreaks

Row

SE USA

Surf Break Dashboards

North Carolina

South Carolina

Florida

NE USA

Surf Break Dashboards

New York

New Jersey

Cali-Hawaii

Surf Break Dashboards

California

Hawaii

WSL-2025

Surf Break Dashboards

Islands

Surf Break Dashboards

Barbados

Europe

Surf Break Dashboards

WPacific

Surf Break Dashboards

Australia

Surf Break Dashboards

IndianO

Surf Break Dashboards

Contact

[email protected]